Vacancy is up and rents are flat after a record building boom. But leasing just passed deliveries for the first time in three years. Here is what that actually means for buyers and owners.
Everybody keeps saying South Florida built too many apartments. They built a lot, no argument. But the numbers underneath tell a more useful story than the headlines, and it is not the one making noise.
What the boom actually did
A record wave of new units hit the market at once. That pushed vacancy up and flattened rent growth, mostly in brand new Class A luxury product still in lease-up. Stabilized occupancy across the metro is still holding in the mid-90s, and Miami-Dade alone has close to 19,000 units under construction, near 10 percent of existing inventory. Rents have settled well off the 2022 peak and are running roughly flat year over year.
Why this is not a demand problem
The elevated vacancy is supply catching up to demand, not demand falling off. Leasing outpaced new completions over the last year for the first time in three years. New construction starts are down about 21 percent, so the pipeline behind this one is thinning fast. For-sale housing is still out of reach for most, which keeps renters renting. And distressed sales are near a historic low, under 1 percent.
Miami keeps leading the South region on occupancy for a reason. The people are here and they are staying.
Where the opening is
For buyers, this is the window. Sales volume is down close to 40 percent year over year and sellers are more motivated than they have been in a while, but the long-term fundamentals have not changed. Underwrite to today's rents, not to a recovery you are hoping for, and you can lock in a basis that looks very smart once this supply clears over the next 18 to 24 months. Owners of workforce and Class B product are already sitting tight, because that is where it never loosened up.
If multifamily is on your radar in Miami-Dade or Broward, send me your buy-box and let's talk before the window closes.
Igor Presman
Commercial Broker · Trybal Group
